Monday, January 22, 2018

Close the Hall of Fame & Start Over!

Before I go into this I have to issue a huge disclaimer: The entry you are about to read has swearing in it so please read it with this disclaimer in mind. So here we go!
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Here’s a complete list of the voters who voted against San Diego Padres pitcher Trevor Hoffman as well as Seattle Mariners Designated Hitter Edgar Martinez and their location last year. Note that the location might be slightly off for some, but this was based on what I could find publicly through Wikipedia, Twitter, and through recently published work:
BBWAA MemberLocation
Jeff FletcherAnaheim
Mark BradleyAtlanta
Peter AbrahamBoston
Bill BallouBoston
David BorgesBoston
Paul DoyleBoston
Alan GreenwoodBoston
Scott LauberBoston
Art MartoneBoston
Tony MassarottiBoston
Joe McDonaldBoston
Brendan RobertsBoston
Bob RyanBoston
Dan ShaughnessyBoston
Michael SilvermanBoston
John TomaseBoston
Mike HarringtonBuffalo
Ryan FaganCharlotte
Bernie LincicomeChicago
Carrie MuskatChicago
Mike NadelChicago
Phil RogersChicago
Gordon WittenmyerChicago
Paul DaughertyCincinnati
Scott PriestleCincinnati
C. Trent RosecransCincinnati
Bill LivingstonCleveland
Tim CowlishawDallas
Lynn HenningDetroit
Tom KeeganKansas City
Sam MellingerKansas City
Jeff PassanKansas City
Rick PlumleeKansas City
Joe PosnanskiKansas City
Juan VenéMiami
Steve WineMiami
Peter BotteNew York
Larry BrooksNew York
Pete CalderaNew York
Murray ChassNew York
Ken DavidoffNew York
Mark FeinsandNew York
Mark HaleNew York
Anthony McCarronNew York
Eric NunezNew York
Steve PopperNew York
Mike PumaNew York
Mike ShalinNew York
Joel ShermanNew York
Mike VaccaroNew York
George WillisNew York
Pat CaputoOakland
Josh DubowOakland
Alan RobinsonPittsburgh
Bob SmizikPittsburgh
Andrew BaggarlySan Francisco
Mark PurdySan Francisco
Jim CapleSeattle
Willie SmithSouth Carolina
Mark SaxonSt. Louis
Mike BerardinoSt. Paul
Phil MillerSt. Paul
John RomanoTampa
Jeff BlairToronto
Rob GilliesToronto
Dave PerkinsToronto
Peter BarzilaiWashington D.C.
Notice any trends? Amazingly, there were 14 ballots from the Boston area – more on this later – alone that omitted Trevor Hoffman & Edgar Martinez. Another 15 New York ballots omitted Hoffman & Edgar. Only 6 West Coast ballots omitted the two.
This is not insignificant. In fact, using an Exact Test  – a statistical method to determine the “rarity” of a contingency table in a random sampling – we see that the revealed Boston vote is very statistically significant, with a two-tailed P value of .0041. If you aren’t familiar with what the P value means:
If there really is no association between the variable defining the rows and the variable defining the columns in the overall population, what is the chance that random sampling would result in an association as strong (or stronger) as observed in this experiment?
In other words, the Boston/Not Boston contingency table is very unlikely if the null hypothesis, that Boston voters are not different from non-Boston voters, is true:
screen-shot-2017-01-19-at-9-54-39-pm
And while New York had 15 no votes, they also had 30 yes votes: a statistically insignificant P value of 0.3682. California, meanwhile, was somewhat biased in Hoffman’s favor, but not enough (P = 0.0966) to definitively conclude anything:
screen-shot-2017-01-19-at-9-51-36-pm
Outside of statistically biased Boston, Hoffman got the required 75.6% of votes needed for induction. In fact, if just 65% of the known Boston ballots voted in Hoffman’s favor, he would have been inducted.
But that’s not even what makes the vote an East Coast sham.
What I really want to talk about is how the F**K Boston, with one baseball team, has roughly 10% of the entire electorate? As you can see, a whopping 26 (10.7%) of all revealed ballots originated from Boston Red Sox territory. There were dudes with votes from obscure newspapers scattered all across New England. Writers from newspapers in Framingham (20 miles away from Boston), Worcester (about 50 miles), and Hartford (keep going)… and then some nimrod that covers UConn basketball in New Haven, ESPN.com’s Boston Bruins hockey analyst, two 1st time voters in the Boston area, and SIX people each from the Boston Globe and Boston Herald.
That’s 26 from just the known votes for one baseball team spanning a population center of roughly 14 million people. And yet Southern California, home to three baseball teams and a population of over 22 million, has just 9 of the 242 known ballots. Proportionally, the Southern California teams receive just 1/9th the representation as the Boston Red Sox.
If writers in Framingham or Hartford and hockey writers get a vote, where’s San Bernardino’s Dodgers representative? Does Bakersfield have a voter?
What ticks me off the most, though, isn’t that Hoffman & Edgar didn’t get inducted last year, since there’s a really high probability that happens in 2018. It’s that we all know that as soon David Ortiz hits the ballot, Bob Ryan and the rest of the Boston mafia will instantly forget the Wins Above Replacement arguments they’ve made against Hoffman & Edgar. Instead, they’ll say their overweight, steroid using Designated Hitter deserves to enter the Hall despite trailing many fellow stars they left off their ballots in WAR: Gary Sheffield (by 12 wins), Edgar Martinez (by 15!), Larry Walker (by 18), and Barry Bonds (by 2.3 David Ortiz careers).
What else would you expect from the B(oston)BWAA?

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