Monday, January 25, 2016

The Pirates may trade Reese McGuire

MLB.com came out with their ten best catching prospects list last week, and it didn't come as too much of a surprise that the Pittsburgh Pirates boasted two players on the list in Reese McGuire (#4 overall) and Elias Diaz (#6).  I guess you actually could consider it a bit of a surprise being that the position, as recently as four years ago, had become so thin throughout the system, that it seemed as though they would never field an adequate backstop again.  But times have changed, and the talent has developed to the point that the depth at the position may force the club to use either Elias Diaz or Reese McGuire as a trade chip in the near future.

Just as any other potential move, especially involving top prospects, you must carefully weigh the pros and cons of such a move, as it could certainly come back to bite you down the line... (This has happened to the Mariners every damn time). One aspect in favor of potentially moving one of the players is that with the current roster, the Pirates have put together one of the most formidable catching combos in the league with Francisco Cervelli and recently resigned Chris Stewart.  While Stewart is locked in for the next few years (2 years $3.0 million/ club option for third at $1.5), Cervelli, however, is presumed to be playing his last year with the club, especially if he duplicates his production from a season ago.  Being that the club and his representatives have discussed a possible extension, he will most likely move in FA after the 2016 season leaving a major gap to fill.  Conventional wisdom would assume that at that point, Diaz will be ready to take over at the Major League level, becoming the every day catcher.  This, of course assumes that his progression continues, which every indication would show.  The Pirates however, have shown that conventional wisdom is not always something that they subscribe too, and may see a golden chance come July to move the MLB ready catching prospect in exchange for pieces that could aid the club for a sustained post-season run.  Diaz would be extremely attractive to a club that is looking to quickly reload and contend, in that he is ready to step in, and has polished fundamentals at this point.  He could step in right now and help a ball club.
But let's face it though, the more attractive piece in a potential trade would be Washington State native, Reese McGuire.  At just 20 years of age, McGuire has shown tremendous upside already in terms of becoming a superstar catcher at Baseball's highest level. While known more for his defensive prowess & rocket arm, his up and down offense seemed to find a level of consistency during the latter part of the Minor League season last year, as well as his stint in the Arizona Fall League, where he batted .294 and had an OPS of .791 [NOTE: "OPS" is short for "On-Base Plus Slugging Percentage", it's a stat that was created by the Godfather of Baseball Stats, Bill James].  This uptick in batting has dramatically boosted his stock as a Minor Leaguer, as the defensive  part of his game has been considered big league caliber by most scouts.  That being said, the first round pick in the 2013 draft is still years away from playing on the blue grass at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, so there is still risk that the development will regress, and he will never put together the offensive game quite enough to be an impact player. But I doubt it and neither does the website Bleacher Report...
McGuire's potential trade stock is at its highest point right now, and the Pirates would be wise to capitalize on that in order to strengthen a club that has been "knocking on the door" for a few years.


However, in my opinion, trading Reese McGuire would be flipping stupid! Have the Pirates not heard of Jason Varitek????

However, when all is said and done, the Pirates, a really good team with little money & a penny-pinching owner, do have to consider making a real run at it- and despite a lot of the fan base thinking otherwise- it is clear that they do have this in mind as well.  While not mortgaging the future, General Manager Neal Huntington is well aware that they may never put together an outfield as deep and as talented as they have right now, an offense that is good enough to contend, and an elite bullpen that will keep you in any game.   Additionally, the division doesn't look to be falling apart in the near future. The Cubs, after developing all of the young talent in their system, are now beginning to open the wallet & are my pick to win the World Series [but that's for another entry].  The Cardinals are the Cardinals, sure, but they didn't get any better this offseason, and should come back to the pack, by all indications.  That being said, they will always be a factor in the N.L. Central.
That's why, as much as I hate to say it, it would be wise for the Pittsburgh Pirates to leverage their depth at the catching position this season in a trade deadline deal.  And the most logical piece to move would be Reese McGuire.  The Pirates presume to be in the thick of another pennant race this season, and could potentially bolster a questionable starting pitching staff at the deadline, much like last season, when they made a move to bring in J.A. Happ from the Mariners.  That move proved to be helpful for the club, although they finished two games short of the division title . The Pirates, if in a similar position in 2016, will most likely take a more aggressive approach, maybe not as aggressive as the fan base would still like, but more of a calculated risk by dealing their top prospect in McGuire in an attempt to put a "bow" on a four year run, that has seen the Pirates eliminated in a one game wild-card playoff each of the last two seasons.

BIG NEWS about the Tampa Bay Rays

After a 5-3 vote by the Tampa Bay City Council, the Tampa Bay Rays have been granted permission to search for a new stadium for the first time in franchise history. It's about time.
Under the proposal written by the team, the Rays search will be restricted to Tampa Bay and includes a termination clause of the current lease, should a new stadium be found. Additionally, the Rays will be able to leave Tropicana Field as early as the 2018 season, assuming the dome doesn't cave in on itself.
This was a necessary vote for the Rays to make any progress toward remaining in Tampa Bay, otherwise they would probably move to Montreal.
Without permission to search for a new stadium, Rays principal owner Stu Sternberg claimed he would be forced to sell the team due to a lack of economic feasibility, but he needed the City Council's expressed permission to even consider leaving Tropicana Field (or as I like to call it "Tropicrappa Field", as it is an awful stadium)
The lease for Tropicana Field legally prohibits the Rays from considering any stadium locations outside the Tampa Bay city limits. This amendment expands the search area for a new stadium to Hillsborough and Pinellas counties.
Now that the Rays have permission to consider a new stadium, a search can begin.
Once a new stadium location is found, the Rays can terminate their lease for a cost of $24 million beginning in 2018 -- a sum that decreases each year the team remains at Tropicana Field. The current lease expires after the 2027 season, but the proposal as written is limited to a three-year search window, but the team is unlikely to let that window expire.
Despite strong television ratings (best in the A.L. East other than the Yankees!) and fan support, the Rays currently have the smallest population base within a 30-minute drive of the stadium, and consequently, the lowest attendance figures in the league. It is no secret that the team is most likely to chose a stadium location closer to its population base in the city of Tampa Bay.
Should the Rays move, the city of Tampa Bay would be free to convert the 85-acres of land used by Tropicrappa Field and its parking lots into valuable residential developments, which several members of the City Council saw as a necessary outcome.
By allowing the Rays to vacate Tropicrappa Field early, the city and developers can take advantage of the extremely low interest rates, while receiving a HUGE financial buyout from a team destined to leave the city limits either way. Then again, leaving the city of Tampa Bay is not a foregone conclusion.
The Rays previously considered a new stadium at Al Lang Field on Tampa Bay's waterfront. While such a location may actually lengthen the travel time for most fans to reach the stadium, it was a beautiful design, and may be able to capitalize on recent economic development in Pinellas County.

Also, if the Rays could move their payroll to the $100-110 million range baseball would look much better & have an even playing field (for the most part)
Here is every MLB Team's 2015 Payroll, as the 2016 payrolls haven't been announced yet
1. Los Angeles Dodgers $272,789,040
2. New York Yankees $219,282,196
3. Boston Red Sox $187,407,202
4. Detroit Tigers $173,813,750
5. San Francisco Giants $172,672,111
6. Washington Nationals $164,920,505
7. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim $150,933,083
8. Texas Rangers $142,140,873
9. Philadelphia Phillies $135,827,500
10. Toronto Blue Jays $122,506,600
11. St. Louis Cardinals $120,869,458
12. Seattle Mariners $119,798,060
13. Chicago Cubs $119,006,885
14. Cincinnati Reds $117,197,072
15. Chicago White Sox $115,238,678
16. Kansas City Royals $113,618,650
17. Baltimore Orioles $110,146,097
18. Minnesota Twins $108,945,000
19. Milwaukee Brewers $105,002,536
20. Colorado Rockies $102,006,130
21. New York Mets $101,409,244
22. San Diego Padres $100,675,896
23. Atlanta Braves $97,578,565
24. Arizona Diamondbacks $91,518,833
25. Pittsburgh Pirates $88,278,500
26. Cleveland Indians $86,091,175
27. Oakland A’s $86,086,667
28. Tampa Bay Rays $76,061,707
29. Houston Astros $70,910,100
30. Miami Marlins $68,479,000


Personally, I'd LOVE to see the Rays get a new stadium because then the Yankees would have some extra competition in the free agent market besides the Red Sox & the Dodgers.

Monday, January 11, 2016

Nomar Garciaparra

The Hall of Fame voting was revealed last week. Maybe you heard Ken Griffey Jr is going in with Mike Piazza. 
But with regard to the voting. As it turns out, the two aforementioned players were voted in, both clearly deserving, and one other specific player, Nomar Garciaparra, was not elected. Because he was not deserving. But oh, he could have been because, oh, what could have been! Garciaparra — a name I just had to force my new computer to learn due to it inexplicably and repeatedly trying to change it into “Garcia parrot” — received just 1.8% of the vote. By rule, players receiving less than 5% of the vote are dropped from the ballot.
So...this is it. As much as I hate to say it, Nomar Garciaparra is officially not a Hall of Famer, meaning he’s officially not as good as Derek Jeter. But he still is to me! The day much of South Boston literally believed would never come has come. But that doesn’t mean Nomar wasn’t Hall of Fame-good. He was. He just wasn't for long enough.
His career was like a plane passing in the night, only it was a jet plane and the night lasted for years. The peak seasons came from 1997 through 2000 when Nomar was worth a total of 27.6 Wins Above Replacement(WAR). I can’t say what would have happened had he stayed healthy, but it seems logical to guess based on his age, that his peak might have extended another season, maybe longer. But in 2001, on the heels of hitting .372, Garciaparra’s wrist began acting up during spring training. It’s unclear when the original injury occurred but the result was wrist surgery in April of 2001. We know wrist surgery can mess a player up for a long while, and though Nomar came back and played 21 games in 2001, he wasn’t the same guy. Over the next two seasons, 2002 and 2003, he recorded a 4.8 and 5.8 WAR, respectively. Quite good, but even so, he was never really the same player again. The insane hand-eye coordination skills were just a tad diminished, and that was enough to turn him from a Hall of Famer into a plane old ordinary good player.
For that four-year run, Garciaparra hit .337/.386/.577 with 113 home runs. That includes his age-23 and 24 seasons, but it was his age-25 and 26 seasons where he really shined. That’s when he hit a combined .365/.426/.601, including the aforementioned .372 batting average in 2000. All this is known or can be learned from a simple glance at Nomar’s player page. The point is, Nomar played those seasons at a Hall of Fame level. But no player gets in based on four seasons’ worth of production — nor are we likely to see consecutive 20 WAR seasons in the near future — but a seven-win average over four years is pretty dang impressive. Keep that up and you’ll be the subject of internet yelling five years after your career ends. Nomar made it to the second ballot, which, as it turns out, is something.

Garciaparra’s body of work before his body gave out on him in 2004 was fantastic. How fantastic? Marc Normandin on a Red Sox blog called Over the Monster found that, from his rookie campaign in 1997 through his age-29 season in 2003, Garciaparra recorded 41 WAR which ranks 43rd all time for total WAR by hitters between those ages. Nomar ranks ahead of Hall of Famers Andre Dawson, Eddie Murray, Robin Yount, Ted Williams, the newly inducted Mike Piazza, and yes, one Derek Sanderson Jeter. Of those 200 players, 23 are designated as shortstops. Nomar is fifth among that group, behind only Cal Ripken, Arky Vaughan, Alex Rodriguez, and the late, great Ernie Banks.

That’s the company with which Garciaparra was running even after his wrist injury. That’s a Hall of Fame trajectory, folks — and for a significant, if ultimately insufficient, period of time. Jay Jaffe of Sports Illustrated corroborates this finding with his unbiased statistical system where he found Garciaparra’s peak to be above average for a Hall of Fame shortstop. Nomar passed the peak test for a Hall of Famer, but injuries robbed him of his chance to pass the career duration test.
That’s not to say Garciaparra was treated unfairly by the baseball gods. Sports are physical activities and physical activities, as anyone who has run long distance, lifted weights, or even been to a trampoline gymnasium can attest to, can lead to injuries. Sometimes pushing your body past it’s breaking point is what an athlete must do to be successful. It’s one of those deals with the devil you have to make.

The thing is, I’m not so sure not missing the Hall and falling off the ballot truck diminish Garciaparra at all. He is the Boston Marathon runner who was leading the pack going into mile 15 before tripping over a paper water cup and breaking his… well, wrist. You don’t win a medal for that. You don’t win anything, in fact. They don’t even give you a certificate saying “Be More Careful Next Time” in calligraphy. But you know and the crowd knows what they saw, and they saw you leading the race and for a long time, and showing no signs of stopping. Sometimes, even if that’s not enough, that’s enough. Nomar wasn’t a Hall of Fame player in the end, but while he was on the field he was a Hall of Fame-caliber player.

When Garciaparra was at his peak & dealing with nightly “NOMAH!” chants at Fenway Park & anywhere else he happened to appear in the Boston area, he was regarded as a Hall of Famer. Heck, he wasn’t just a run-of-the-mill Hall of Famer, either. He was Ted Williams, arguably the greatest hitter who ever lived. We know this because Ted Williams himself told us so before he died. The fact that Garciaparra’s quest ended this week in the fashion we all knew it would for the last decade does not dim the luminescence of what he accomplished during his peak or his career. Plaque or not, for four years Nomar was as good as a Hall of Famer, even if, after this past week’s results, he’ll never be one :(