Why should the Seattle Mariners pursue Cole Hamels?

As of this writing, there are nineteen days before the MLB Trading Deadline  but the rumor mill is just getting started. The Rangers, cellar-dwellers in a packed AL West, are already rolling out the sale signs and affixing price stickers to most of their pitching staff and the Mariners are rumored to be interested in the centerpiece of the showroom, according to MLB Analyst Jon Paul Morosi on his Twitter feed back on June 28th:

Jon Morosi

✔ @jonmorosi

The #Mariners have two key advantages in pursuing a Cole Hamels trade: He is not able to block a deal to Seattle, as per the terms of his no-trade clause, and the Mariners (unlike the #Yankees) aren’t in danger of incurring luxury-tax penalties. @MLB @MLBNetwork

Sometimes, with trade rumors like this, it’s so tempting as an outsider to look at the various moving pieces and solve the trade in your head, like it’s the Jumble or something. The Mariners need pitching*, they have few prospects but plenty of money to spend on Cole Hamels’ ridiculous $22.5 MM contract, and they’re one of the few teams not on his no-trade list. It makes so much sense!

Except...does it?

Although the Mariners certainly have more cash-money that prospect collateral, it’s important to note that Hamels’ contract, aside from being a healthy chunk of change this year, also has a little poison pill for next year: either it’s subject to a large ($6 million) buyout, or, if Hamels reaches 400 innings in both 2017 and 2018 without ending the season on the DL for a shoulder or an elbow, the whole 20 mill is guaranteed. He fell short last year, only pitching 150 innings, so the guarantee won’t kick in, but the $6 million buyout is still in play. The good news is Hamels’ high price tag almost ensures the prospect return would be minimal-to-nonexistent, unless Texas eats a large portion of the contract; the bad news is that’s still a giant chunk of change for a 35-year-old pitcher who, so far, hasn’t been that great this year.

Here is how Cole Hamels would slot in amongst the Mariners’ starters up to this point in the season:

© Fangraphs

The number that jumps out, obviously, is the HR/FB rate: one of these pitchers does not pitch in Safeco as his home ballpark. But troublingly, Hamels has earned some of those flyball homers this year, as his hard contact rate is up to a career-high 44%—almost ten points above his previous career high, last year’s 36%. That’s led him to a career-high FIP of over 5, and the blame can be put squarely on Globe Life, where he’s surrendered 14 dingers, vs. 6 in all other parks, leading to some particularly wicked home/road splits: an FIP of about 6.5 at home vs. just under 4 when away from his personal chamber of horrors. 9 of the homeruns he’s given up have been to righty batters pulling the ball, which fits with the reputation of Globe Life Park being a hitter's haven, but he’s also given up 7 homers to righties to the center of the field, suggesting righties are seeing the ball off him particularly well.

There are some good things hiding beneath those ugly numbers, however. Hamels is still striking out a good number of batters (23%) and although his walk rate is troublingly high (9%!), that might be in response to his dinger problem. If his xFIP of just over 4 is more a measure of where Hamels is when not pitching in Arlington—remember that xFIP uses projected, instead of actual, HRs allowed—that’s still a useful pitcher, and one that’s perhaps constructed with a little less magic pixie dust than Wade LeBlanc. (SIERA likes Hamels even more than xFIP.) However, Hamels is one of the Rangers’ best trade chips, and if the team wants to maximize their return, they’d be smart to package him with another player—maybe a useful reliever like Keone Kela or even Jose LeClerc—and see if they couldn’t get some actual prospects to help rebuild a farm that’s ranked in the bottom third in baseball.

Now back to that asterisk. The Mariners need pitching*, but they aren’t desperate for it, which is quite a sentence to type. Hamels would offer the Mariners some flexibility and depth, and perhaps even the ability to go to a six-man rotation, which is some straight-up luxury talk. Acquiring a durable innings-gobbler like Cole would defend against a member of the starting rotation going down with injury and provide some extra insurance in case there’s an embargo on Wade’s fairy dust, but the thing is the Mariners already have a durable innings-gobbler, and his name is Mike Leake. They say the best time to look for a job is when you already have one, and maybe that advice applies to shopping for pitching, as well. Also, as of last night, Felix Hernandez was put on the 10-day disabled list with a sore back, so Hamels would help immensely. 

Important Thing to Remember:

As transparent as this front office is, they are notoriously tight-lipped about possible transactions. The Mitch Haniger/Jean Segura trade, the Dee Gordon trade, the Denard Span/Alex Colome trade...none of these were reported or even foreshadowed until they happened. Meanwhile, names that have been connected to Seattle in the DiPoto era—Lucas Duda, Jay Bruce, Jon Jay, Matt Harvey, Sonny Gray, Carlos Santana, among others—haven’t panned out. Remember for like two hours over the Winter Meetings this past year we thought they were signing Mark Trumbo because someone saw someone talking to his agent or something? MAN those Winter Meetings were boring. As DiPoto told reporters at the Winter Meetings, “we are linked to everything because we are constantly involved in everything.” All DiPoto has said to this matter is: “it’s a good group of five pitchers; if we have the chance to go out and augment it, we will”—which is DiPoto-speak for “I’m not doing anything differently than I normally do.” My gut instinct is that the Mariners are doing their due diligence on Hamels, and writers and rumor-mongers are putting the pieces together (because again: it would make so much sense!). To me, it would be surprising to see DiPoto, who has prized bringing in assets who will be long-term pieces of the club rather than splash money on rentals, go this route. If they do, however, there’s certainly no concern about Cole Hamels not fitting in with the Mariners’ “no bad guys” clubhouse; remember when he donated his ten-million dollar house to charity?

In conclusion, the Mariners need to make the playoffs in 2018 & Cole Hamels would be the best option as he has post-season experience with the Philadelphia Phillies team that won the 2008 World Series over the Tampa Bay Rays. Hamels made five postseason starts in 2008, going 4–0 with a 1.80 ERA, throwing 35 innings and holding the opposition scoreless in 28 of them and he never allowed more than one run in any of the seven innings in which he did not hold opponents scoreless during the 2008 post-season. As a bonus reward for his efforts, he was named the NLCS Most Valuable Player and the World Series Most Valuable Player.

Compare & Contrast

For many reasons, the San Diego Padres organization currently, as a whole, reminds me of the Oakland Athletics organization from the late 1990's-early 2000's. Why would that be? It's quite simple really...

Backstory:

When the Oakland Athletics [or more commonly called the A's], traded superstar players like Rickey Henderson & Mark McGwire, they had a bright, young General Manager named Billy Beane, who at the time was vilified [and still is today by many in Oakland] for not keeping his superstars. But there was a reason why: the Oakland A's had no money whatsoever to keep those players, as they had recently "updated" the Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum to accommodate the NFL's Oakland Raiders, who had just moved back from Los Angeles. The Raiders' owner, Al Davis, built a triple-decker structure which the local fans have grudgingly nicknamed "The U.S.S. Al Davis". It took the beauty out of that park & made it a football stadium. Anyways, I'm getting way off track. Billy Beane did this out of the fear of bankruptcy, the Padres' General Manager, A.J. Preller, did it because he felt like it.

Intelligent Draft Choices

From 1997 to 1999 the A's made three very good choices in the Major League Baseball Amateur draft. What would those choices be? In 1997 GM Billy Beane chose right handed pitcher Tim Hudson with Oakland's 1st round pick that season. The following year, in 1998, left handed pitcher Mark Mulder was selected in the 1st round & finally, in 1999, Oakland chose left handed pitcher Barry Zito in the 1st round. Oh and here is a fun fact: Zito was a 1996 33rd round draft pick by the Seattle Mariners, but Zito did not sign. Anyhow, these three guys were college pitchers, who are [hopefully] more mature in their behavior & more physically & more mentally developed than pitchers who were drafted straight out of high school. These guys would eventually become "the Big Three" as they were three of the best pitchers in baseball... and they were all on the same damn team! The Padres have a similar trio of future star pitchers in the Minor Leagues: Cal Quantrill, Joey Lucchesi & Anderson Espinoza, the latter of whom is currently on the disabled list.

But wait! There's More!


The Athletics also had the best farm system in Major League Baseball in the late '90s-early 2000's, much as the Padres do in the present. In fact the A's farm system was so impressive that they were awarded "Organization of the Year" three years straight from 1998-2000, beating out more popular teams such as the New York Yankees & the Boston Red Sox.  Like the A's before them, the Padres have so many talented ballplayers in their organization, it's not even funny! The Padres General Manager, A.J. Preller, has signed players from the Dominican Republic, Japan, etc.. As a matter of fact, in just about any place in the world where baseball is being played, the San Diego Padres are looking for talent & as Branch Rickey [the man who signed Jackie Robinson] once said, "If you have the talent, you will be found!".

The Trades

In my opinion, the most important trade for the Padres came in May of 2016 when they swindled the Chicago White Sox out of future superstar shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. in exchange for one of the worst pitchers in baseball in 2018, James Shields. If the White Sox weren't the very definition of "gullible" that day in May, 2016, then what is the definition of "gullible"? The only time I could think of when Oakland did this was when Billy Beane acquired/swindled young talent during a July 1999 trade with the New York Mets on July 31st, 1999. The A's acquired pitchers Jason Isringhausen & Ireland raised Greg McMichael, along with speedy centerfielder Terrence Long, in exchange for pitchers Billy Taylor & Kenny Rogers. 

Team Chemistry

Whenever I see the Padres, the thing that reminds me the most of those Oakland Athletics teams from the late '90s-to early '00s, is the comradery the players have with each other. There are twenty five guys on an active Major League Baseball roster, some may arrive to the ballpark in a bad mood, but they leave it at the door. They all enter with one team goal & that's to win a ballgame. It doesn't matter who the hero is, as long as they win that day. That's what I see in the Padres, they may not have the most money, but they do have enthusiasm & a great respect for the game of baseball.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the San Diego Padres, like the A's before them, have a good minor league system, have made intelligent draft choices & have a good comradery with each other. The Future is looking bright for the Padres. Now let's just hope they don't get eliminated in the 1st round of the playoffs, like those Oakland teams did.

Close the Hall of Fame & Start Over!

Before I go into this I have to issue a huge disclaimer: The entry you are about to read has swearing in it so please read it with this disclaimer in mind. So here we go!
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Here’s a complete list of the voters who voted against San Diego Padres pitcher Trevor Hoffman as well as Seattle Mariners Designated Hitter Edgar Martinez and their location last year. Note that the location might be slightly off for some, but this was based on what I could find publicly through Wikipedia, Twitter, and through recently published work:

BBWAA Member	Location
Jeff Fletcher	Anaheim
Mark Bradley	Atlanta
Peter Abraham	Boston
Bill Ballou	Boston
David Borges	Boston
Paul Doyle	Boston
Alan Greenwood	Boston
Scott Lauber	Boston
Art Martone	Boston
Tony Massarotti	Boston
Joe McDonald	Boston
Brendan Roberts	Boston
Bob Ryan	Boston
Dan Shaughnessy	Boston
Michael Silverman	Boston
John Tomase	Boston
Mike Harrington	Buffalo
Ryan Fagan	Charlotte
Bernie Lincicome	Chicago
Carrie Muskat	Chicago
Mike Nadel	Chicago
Phil Rogers	Chicago
Gordon Wittenmyer	Chicago
Paul Daugherty	Cincinnati
Scott Priestle	Cincinnati
C. Trent Rosecrans	Cincinnati
Bill Livingston	Cleveland
Tim Cowlishaw	Dallas
Lynn Henning	Detroit
Tom Keegan	Kansas City
Sam Mellinger	Kansas City
Jeff Passan	Kansas City
Rick Plumlee	Kansas City
Joe Posnanski	Kansas City
Juan Vené	Miami
Steve Wine	Miami
Peter Botte	New York
Larry Brooks	New York
Pete Caldera	New York
Murray Chass	New York
Ken Davidoff	New York
Mark Feinsand	New York
Mark Hale	New York
Anthony McCarron	New York
Eric Nunez	New York
Steve Popper	New York
Mike Puma	New York
Mike Shalin	New York
Joel Sherman	New York
Mike Vaccaro	New York
George Willis	New York
Pat Caputo	Oakland
Josh Dubow	Oakland
Alan Robinson	Pittsburgh
Bob Smizik	Pittsburgh
Andrew Baggarly	San Francisco
Mark Purdy	San Francisco
Jim Caple	Seattle
Willie Smith	South Carolina
Mark Saxon	St. Louis
Mike Berardino	St. Paul
Phil Miller	St. Paul
John Romano	Tampa
Jeff Blair	Toronto
Rob Gillies	Toronto
Dave Perkins	Toronto
Peter Barzilai	Washington D.C.

Notice any trends? Amazingly, there were 14 ballots from the Boston area – more on this later – alone that omitted Trevor Hoffman & Edgar Martinez. Another 15 New York ballots omitted Hoffman & Edgar. Only 6 West Coast ballots omitted the two.
This is not insignificant. In fact, using an Exact Test  – a statistical method to determine the “rarity” of a contingency table in a random sampling – we see that the revealed Boston vote is very statistically significant, with a two-tailed P value of .0041. If you aren’t familiar with what the P value means:

If there really is no association between the variable defining the rows and the variable defining the columns in the overall population, what is the chance that random sampling would result in an association as strong (or stronger) as observed in this experiment?

In other words, the Boston/Not Boston contingency table is very unlikely if the null hypothesis, that Boston voters are not different from non-Boston voters, is true:

And while New York had 15 no votes, they also had 30 yes votes: a statistically insignificant P value of 0.3682. California, meanwhile, was somewhat biased in Hoffman’s favor, but not enough (P = 0.0966) to definitively conclude anything:

Outside of statistically biased Boston, Hoffman got the required 75.6% of votes needed for induction. In fact, if just 65% of the known Boston ballots voted in Hoffman’s favor, he would have been inducted.
But that’s not even what makes the vote an East Coast sham.
What I really want to talk about is how the F**K Boston, with one baseball team, has roughly 10% of the entire electorate? As you can see, a whopping 26 (10.7%) of all revealed ballots originated from Boston Red Sox territory. There were dudes with votes from obscure newspapers scattered all across New England. Writers from newspapers in Framingham (20 miles away from Boston), Worcester (about 50 miles), and Hartford (keep going)… and then some nimrod that covers UConn basketball in New Haven, ESPN.com’s Boston Bruins hockey analyst, two 1st time voters in the Boston area, and SIX people each from the Boston Globe and Boston Herald.
That’s 26 from just the known votes for one baseball team spanning a population center of roughly 14 million people. And yet Southern California, home to three baseball teams and a population of over 22 million, has just 9 of the 242 known ballots. Proportionally, the Southern California teams receive just 1/9th the representation as the Boston Red Sox.
If writers in Framingham or Hartford and hockey writers get a vote, where’s San Bernardino’s Dodgers representative? Does Bakersfield have a voter?
What ticks me off the most, though, isn’t that Hoffman & Edgar didn’t get inducted last year, since there’s a really high probability that happens in 2018. It’s that we all know that as soon David Ortiz hits the ballot, Bob Ryan and the rest of the Boston mafia will instantly forget the Wins Above Replacement arguments they’ve made against Hoffman & Edgar. Instead, they’ll say their overweight, steroid using Designated Hitter deserves to enter the Hall despite trailing many fellow stars they left off their ballots in WAR: Gary Sheffield (by 12 wins), Edgar Martinez (by 15!), Larry Walker (by 18), and Barry Bonds (by 2.3 David Ortiz careers).
What else would you expect from the B(oston)BWAA?

An Interesting Thought...

The year 1993 was a pivotal one in the history of the Seattle Mariners.  The previous year was a disaster, as general manager Woody Woodward traded young pitchers Bill Swift, Mike Jackson and Dave Burba for Giants slugger Kevin Mitchell.  Mitchell was an unenthusiastic performer and with the young relievers stripped from the bullpen, the Mariners were a laughingstock [No changes there then!].  Their 64-98 season cost Bill Plummer his job.
Plummer’s departure, however, made way for the arrival of Lou Piniella.  Piniella made it clear things would be different.  The team that took the field in the Kingdome in ’93 had many of the heroes of ’95. Ken Griffey, Jay Buhner, Tino Martinez and Rich Amaral.  Edgar Martinez had torn his hamstrings in the last pre-season game in Vancouver, after winning his first batting title in 1992, but he would be back as a DH in ’94. The other hero of ’95 who returned was Randy Johnson.

Johnson was in his sixth year in the majors, his fifth year with the M’s.  Let’s just say he was unique.  The tallest man in Major League Baseball, he threw hard, had a slider and loved heavy metal music [although he enjoyed listening to the opera on his way to the stadium].  But he was wild, leading the American League in walks from 1990-92 with 120, 152 and 144 respectively.  If he could just put it all together, Johnson could be a monster. But in 1992 Johnson was outpitched by soft-tossing lefty Dave Fleming, who went 17-10 and finished third in Rookie of the Year balloting.
It would never happen again.

In 1993 at age 29, after working with Nolan Ryan in the off-season Randy Johnson appeared a different pitcher. He won 19 games, struck out 308 batters and finished second in  Cy Young voting. It was the beginning of Randy Johnson as a Hall of Fame pitcher.  From 1993-2004 Johnson would finish first or second in Cy Young voting eight times and make all-star appearances nine times.

In a September 2016 story with Tim Rodmaker of Professional Baseball Strength and Conditioning, Johnson credited his off-season sessions with Ryan for helping him find a new delivery that helped him control his extra long limbs.  Ryan taught him to be more aggressive, control the game more effectively, and make clear to batters that he was in charge. Ryan also taught Johnson more about the importance of being a good teammate.

2018 is James Paxton’s sixth season, also his age 29 year. His big year might have been 2016 when with a change in his arm slot and a big tick up in his fastball velocity and better command of his pitches, Paxton became a much better pitcher. But, like Johnson in ’93, this year is the most important of Paxton’s tenure with the Mariners.  My belief is that progress by the big lefty is critical and makes him, in many respects, the most important player on the team. 29, after working with Nolan Ryan in the off-season Randy Johnson appeared a different pitcher. He won 19 games, struck out 308 batters and finished second in  Cy Young voting. It was the beginning of Randy Johnson as a Hall of Fame pitcher.  From 1993-2004 Johnson would finish first or second in Cy Young voting eight times and make all-star appearances nine times.

Obviously, pitching has changed so much since 1993.  The critical role of the starting pitcher has diminished somewhat as dominant bullpens have assumed a larger role.  So comparing Johnson to Paxton maybe doesn’t make sense.  Johnson had 14 years of over 200 inning pitched. Between 1993-2002, Johnson missed 200 twice, once because of the strike in 1994, and in the season of his back surgery in 1996.  Paxton hasn’t thrown 150 innings in any of his years.  Johnson was 6’10” of angry, volatile rocket fuel who not only won 303 games, but is tied for fifth all-time for most career hit batters. Roger Clemens at 14 and Don Drysdale at 19 are soft by comparison. James Paxton isn’t that guy. He may be tall, but angry he isn’t.

But like Johnson in ’93, the Mariners are putting a lot of hope on the tall Canadian’s shoulders. He’s received a lot of accolades from his GM as being among the top ten pitchers in the American League. Some of the stats support this. Of course you’re going to have to dig around for them, because he doesn’t qualify for many of the basic numbers and doesn’t appear on the ESPN or Baseball Reference leader boards.  Not enough innings pitched. Yes he is 10^th in the AL in pitcher WAR, but still a long way from the league leaders.  Jeff Sullivan wrote a great article in August about Paxton leading the American League in wOBA or batted ball speed.  And that was just before the big man went on the DL for the second time in August after a pectoral strain.  He’d miss three starts and never pitch well in a game for the rest of 2017. Yes, Paxton has great rate stats, but they don’t measure loss to the team when Christian Bergman or Max Povse are taking his starts, or the number of starts when Paxton is regaining his mechanical consistency after  time away on the DL.
I can talk until I’m blue in the face about the Mariners rotation, whether it’s passable, or decent, or downright terrible. But if there is a chance for the Mariners to make the playoffs in 2018, it begins with James Paxton. For the years 1993-1998, those remaining  of Johnson’s career with the Mariners, The Big Unit was surrounded by a plethora of lesser lights-a declining Chris Bosio, Jeff Fassero, Tim Belcher, reinforced by Jamie Moyer in 2017, and a highly volatile bullpen. Johnson was the guy who led the rest of the pitchers, alongside an admittedly brilliant offensive cast, to the playoffs in ’95 and again in ’97 in spite of the mediocrity of the rest of the pitching.
We can also argue about the 2018 offense, whether it is average, a little better than average or really good, but unless the pitching staff can perform it won’t matter how many runs this team scores, they will lose. A quality pitching staff begins with a legitimate ace, and Paxton has to be that guy.  Pitchers become aces by being on the field. Click those ESPN WAR stats again.  Check the top five.  None has less than 193.1 innings. By comparison, Paxton ranks 47th in innings pitched.

Look, I’m not suggesting Paxton is a malingerer, a slacker, or anything of the kind.  Perhaps the hiring of Dr. Lorena Martin as director of high performance will make the difference, or maybe Paxton will figure it out.  But the bottom line is no Paxton hurts the team.  He needs to be on the field. The Mariners have no shot without him.

This is not only a huge year for Paxton as a Mariner. He’s just avoided his second year of arbitration for a tidy $4.9 million.  2019 will be his final year under Mariner control before he hits free agency. Will he enter the market as a 31-year old established star, or will he limp onto the big stage long on potential but ever-injured like Brett Anderson?  Will he be Clayton Kershaw as he walks unscathed on to the big free agent stage in 2019, or will he merely be another can on the scratched and dented aisle in 2020?
James Paxton isn’t likely to be a Hall of Fame pitcher.  But it isn’t difficult to see he is the leader of this pitching staff.  In 2018 he must take the next step forward by being on the field, just as Randy Johnson made the same leap at the same age.  To me that means at least 30 healthy starts and a minimum of 180 innings pitched.  Just to compare, that puts him number 15 in the American League using 2017 stats, just behind Jason Hammel and just ahead of Jason Vargas, not anywhere near the AL’s top ten.
The M’s will fare as well in 2018 as James Paxton does.  The day his name appears on the DL is the day their hopes for a successful season are likely over.  Mark it down.