Monday, January 25, 2016

The Pirates may trade Reese McGuire

MLB.com came out with their ten best catching prospects list last week, and it didn't come as too much of a surprise that the Pittsburgh Pirates boasted two players on the list in Reese McGuire (#4 overall) and Elias Diaz (#6).  I guess you actually could consider it a bit of a surprise being that the position, as recently as four years ago, had become so thin throughout the system, that it seemed as though they would never field an adequate backstop again.  But times have changed, and the talent has developed to the point that the depth at the position may force the club to use either Elias Diaz or Reese McGuire as a trade chip in the near future.

Just as any other potential move, especially involving top prospects, you must carefully weigh the pros and cons of such a move, as it could certainly come back to bite you down the line... (This has happened to the Mariners every damn time). One aspect in favor of potentially moving one of the players is that with the current roster, the Pirates have put together one of the most formidable catching combos in the league with Francisco Cervelli and recently resigned Chris Stewart.  While Stewart is locked in for the next few years (2 years $3.0 million/ club option for third at $1.5), Cervelli, however, is presumed to be playing his last year with the club, especially if he duplicates his production from a season ago.  Being that the club and his representatives have discussed a possible extension, he will most likely move in FA after the 2016 season leaving a major gap to fill.  Conventional wisdom would assume that at that point, Diaz will be ready to take over at the Major League level, becoming the every day catcher.  This, of course assumes that his progression continues, which every indication would show.  The Pirates however, have shown that conventional wisdom is not always something that they subscribe too, and may see a golden chance come July to move the MLB ready catching prospect in exchange for pieces that could aid the club for a sustained post-season run.  Diaz would be extremely attractive to a club that is looking to quickly reload and contend, in that he is ready to step in, and has polished fundamentals at this point.  He could step in right now and help a ball club.
But let's face it though, the more attractive piece in a potential trade would be Washington State native, Reese McGuire.  At just 20 years of age, McGuire has shown tremendous upside already in terms of becoming a superstar catcher at Baseball's highest level. While known more for his defensive prowess & rocket arm, his up and down offense seemed to find a level of consistency during the latter part of the Minor League season last year, as well as his stint in the Arizona Fall League, where he batted .294 and had an OPS of .791 [NOTE: "OPS" is short for "On-Base Plus Slugging Percentage", it's a stat that was created by the Godfather of Baseball Stats, Bill James].  This uptick in batting has dramatically boosted his stock as a Minor Leaguer, as the defensive  part of his game has been considered big league caliber by most scouts.  That being said, the first round pick in the 2013 draft is still years away from playing on the blue grass at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, so there is still risk that the development will regress, and he will never put together the offensive game quite enough to be an impact player. But I doubt it and neither does the website Bleacher Report...
McGuire's potential trade stock is at its highest point right now, and the Pirates would be wise to capitalize on that in order to strengthen a club that has been "knocking on the door" for a few years.


However, in my opinion, trading Reese McGuire would be flipping stupid! Have the Pirates not heard of Jason Varitek????

However, when all is said and done, the Pirates, a really good team with little money & a penny-pinching owner, do have to consider making a real run at it- and despite a lot of the fan base thinking otherwise- it is clear that they do have this in mind as well.  While not mortgaging the future, General Manager Neal Huntington is well aware that they may never put together an outfield as deep and as talented as they have right now, an offense that is good enough to contend, and an elite bullpen that will keep you in any game.   Additionally, the division doesn't look to be falling apart in the near future. The Cubs, after developing all of the young talent in their system, are now beginning to open the wallet & are my pick to win the World Series [but that's for another entry].  The Cardinals are the Cardinals, sure, but they didn't get any better this offseason, and should come back to the pack, by all indications.  That being said, they will always be a factor in the N.L. Central.
That's why, as much as I hate to say it, it would be wise for the Pittsburgh Pirates to leverage their depth at the catching position this season in a trade deadline deal.  And the most logical piece to move would be Reese McGuire.  The Pirates presume to be in the thick of another pennant race this season, and could potentially bolster a questionable starting pitching staff at the deadline, much like last season, when they made a move to bring in J.A. Happ from the Mariners.  That move proved to be helpful for the club, although they finished two games short of the division title . The Pirates, if in a similar position in 2016, will most likely take a more aggressive approach, maybe not as aggressive as the fan base would still like, but more of a calculated risk by dealing their top prospect in McGuire in an attempt to put a "bow" on a four year run, that has seen the Pirates eliminated in a one game wild-card playoff each of the last two seasons.

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