.
Here’s a complete list of the voters who voted against San Diego Padres pitcher Trevor Hoffman as well as Seattle Mariners Designated Hitter Edgar Martinez and their location last year. Note that the location might be slightly off for some, but this was based on what I could find publicly through Wikipedia, Twitter, and through recently published work:
BBWAA Member | Location |
---|---|
Jeff Fletcher | Anaheim |
Mark Bradley | Atlanta |
Peter Abraham | Boston |
Bill Ballou | Boston |
David Borges | Boston |
Paul Doyle | Boston |
Alan Greenwood | Boston |
Scott Lauber | Boston |
Art Martone | Boston |
Tony Massarotti | Boston |
Joe McDonald | Boston |
Brendan Roberts | Boston |
Bob Ryan | Boston |
Dan Shaughnessy | Boston |
Michael Silverman | Boston |
John Tomase | Boston |
Mike Harrington | Buffalo |
Ryan Fagan | Charlotte |
Bernie Lincicome | Chicago |
Carrie Muskat | Chicago |
Mike Nadel | Chicago |
Phil Rogers | Chicago |
Gordon Wittenmyer | Chicago |
Paul Daugherty | Cincinnati |
Scott Priestle | Cincinnati |
C. Trent Rosecrans | Cincinnati |
Bill Livingston | Cleveland |
Tim Cowlishaw | Dallas |
Lynn Henning | Detroit |
Tom Keegan | Kansas City |
Sam Mellinger | Kansas City |
Jeff Passan | Kansas City |
Rick Plumlee | Kansas City |
Joe Posnanski | Kansas City |
Juan Vené | Miami |
Steve Wine | Miami |
Peter Botte | New York |
Larry Brooks | New York |
Pete Caldera | New York |
Murray Chass | New York |
Ken Davidoff | New York |
Mark Feinsand | New York |
Mark Hale | New York |
Anthony McCarron | New York |
Eric Nunez | New York |
Steve Popper | New York |
Mike Puma | New York |
Mike Shalin | New York |
Joel Sherman | New York |
Mike Vaccaro | New York |
George Willis | New York |
Pat Caputo | Oakland |
Josh Dubow | Oakland |
Alan Robinson | Pittsburgh |
Bob Smizik | Pittsburgh |
Andrew Baggarly | San Francisco |
Mark Purdy | San Francisco |
Jim Caple | Seattle |
Willie Smith | South Carolina |
Mark Saxon | St. Louis |
Mike Berardino | St. Paul |
Phil Miller | St. Paul |
John Romano | Tampa |
Jeff Blair | Toronto |
Rob Gillies | Toronto |
Dave Perkins | Toronto |
Peter Barzilai | Washington D.C. |
This is not insignificant. In fact, using an Exact Test – a statistical method to determine the “rarity” of a contingency table in a random sampling – we see that the revealed Boston vote is very statistically significant, with a two-tailed P value of .0041. If you aren’t familiar with what the P value means:
If there really is no association between the variable defining the rows and the variable defining the columns in the overall population, what is the chance that random sampling would result in an association as strong (or stronger) as observed in this experiment?In other words, the Boston/Not Boston contingency table is very unlikely if the null hypothesis, that Boston voters are not different from non-Boston voters, is true:
And while New York had 15 no votes, they also had 30 yes votes: a statistically insignificant P value of 0.3682. California, meanwhile, was somewhat biased in Hoffman’s favor, but not enough (P = 0.0966) to definitively conclude anything:
Outside of statistically biased Boston, Hoffman got the required 75.6% of votes needed for induction. In fact, if just 65% of the known Boston ballots voted in Hoffman’s favor, he would have been inducted.
But that’s not even what makes the vote an East Coast sham.
What I really want to talk about is how the F**K Boston, with one baseball team, has roughly 10% of the entire electorate? As you can see, a whopping 26 (10.7%) of all revealed ballots originated from Boston Red Sox territory. There were dudes with votes from obscure newspapers scattered all across New England. Writers from newspapers in Framingham (20 miles away from Boston), Worcester (about 50 miles), and Hartford (keep going)… and then some nimrod that covers UConn basketball in New Haven, ESPN.com’s Boston Bruins hockey analyst, two 1st time voters in the Boston area, and SIX people each from the Boston Globe and Boston Herald.
That’s 26 from just the known votes for one baseball team spanning a population center of roughly 14 million people. And yet Southern California, home to three baseball teams and a population of over 22 million, has just 9 of the 242 known ballots. Proportionally, the Southern California teams receive just 1/9th the representation as the Boston Red Sox.
If writers in Framingham or Hartford and hockey writers get a vote, where’s San Bernardino’s Dodgers representative? Does Bakersfield have a voter?
What ticks me off the most, though, isn’t that Hoffman & Edgar didn’t get inducted last year, since there’s a really high probability that happens in 2018. It’s that we all know that as soon David Ortiz hits the ballot, Bob Ryan and the rest of the Boston mafia will instantly forget the Wins Above Replacement arguments they’ve made against Hoffman & Edgar. Instead, they’ll say their overweight, steroid using Designated Hitter deserves to enter the Hall despite trailing many fellow stars they left off their ballots in WAR: Gary Sheffield (by 12 wins), Edgar Martinez (by 15!), Larry Walker (by 18), and Barry Bonds (by 2.3 David Ortiz careers).
What else would you expect from the B(oston)BWAA?
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