Why should the Seattle Mariners pursue Cole Hamels?

As of this writing, there are nineteen days before the MLB Trading Deadline  but the rumor mill is just getting started. The Rangers, cellar-dwellers in a packed AL West, are already rolling out the sale signs and affixing price stickers to most of their pitching staff and the Mariners are rumored to be interested in the centerpiece of the showroom, according to MLB Analyst Jon Paul Morosi on his Twitter feed back on June 28th:

Jon Morosi

✔ @jonmorosi

The #Mariners have two key advantages in pursuing a Cole Hamels trade: He is not able to block a deal to Seattle, as per the terms of his no-trade clause, and the Mariners (unlike the #Yankees) aren’t in danger of incurring luxury-tax penalties. @MLB @MLBNetwork

Sometimes, with trade rumors like this, it’s so tempting as an outsider to look at the various moving pieces and solve the trade in your head, like it’s the Jumble or something. The Mariners need pitching*, they have few prospects but plenty of money to spend on Cole Hamels’ ridiculous $22.5 MM contract, and they’re one of the few teams not on his no-trade list. It makes so much sense!

Except...does it?

Although the Mariners certainly have more cash-money that prospect collateral, it’s important to note that Hamels’ contract, aside from being a healthy chunk of change this year, also has a little poison pill for next year: either it’s subject to a large ($6 million) buyout, or, if Hamels reaches 400 innings in both 2017 and 2018 without ending the season on the DL for a shoulder or an elbow, the whole 20 mill is guaranteed. He fell short last year, only pitching 150 innings, so the guarantee won’t kick in, but the $6 million buyout is still in play. The good news is Hamels’ high price tag almost ensures the prospect return would be minimal-to-nonexistent, unless Texas eats a large portion of the contract; the bad news is that’s still a giant chunk of change for a 35-year-old pitcher who, so far, hasn’t been that great this year.

Here is how Cole Hamels would slot in amongst the Mariners’ starters up to this point in the season:

© Fangraphs

The number that jumps out, obviously, is the HR/FB rate: one of these pitchers does not pitch in Safeco as his home ballpark. But troublingly, Hamels has earned some of those flyball homers this year, as his hard contact rate is up to a career-high 44%—almost ten points above his previous career high, last year’s 36%. That’s led him to a career-high FIP of over 5, and the blame can be put squarely on Globe Life, where he’s surrendered 14 dingers, vs. 6 in all other parks, leading to some particularly wicked home/road splits: an FIP of about 6.5 at home vs. just under 4 when away from his personal chamber of horrors. 9 of the homeruns he’s given up have been to righty batters pulling the ball, which fits with the reputation of Globe Life Park being a hitter's haven, but he’s also given up 7 homers to righties to the center of the field, suggesting righties are seeing the ball off him particularly well.

There are some good things hiding beneath those ugly numbers, however. Hamels is still striking out a good number of batters (23%) and although his walk rate is troublingly high (9%!), that might be in response to his dinger problem. If his xFIP of just over 4 is more a measure of where Hamels is when not pitching in Arlington—remember that xFIP uses projected, instead of actual, HRs allowed—that’s still a useful pitcher, and one that’s perhaps constructed with a little less magic pixie dust than Wade LeBlanc. (SIERA likes Hamels even more than xFIP.) However, Hamels is one of the Rangers’ best trade chips, and if the team wants to maximize their return, they’d be smart to package him with another player—maybe a useful reliever like Keone Kela or even Jose LeClerc—and see if they couldn’t get some actual prospects to help rebuild a farm that’s ranked in the bottom third in baseball.

Now back to that asterisk. The Mariners need pitching*, but they aren’t desperate for it, which is quite a sentence to type. Hamels would offer the Mariners some flexibility and depth, and perhaps even the ability to go to a six-man rotation, which is some straight-up luxury talk. Acquiring a durable innings-gobbler like Cole would defend against a member of the starting rotation going down with injury and provide some extra insurance in case there’s an embargo on Wade’s fairy dust, but the thing is the Mariners already have a durable innings-gobbler, and his name is Mike Leake. They say the best time to look for a job is when you already have one, and maybe that advice applies to shopping for pitching, as well. Also, as of last night, Felix Hernandez was put on the 10-day disabled list with a sore back, so Hamels would help immensely. 

Important Thing to Remember:

As transparent as this front office is, they are notoriously tight-lipped about possible transactions. The Mitch Haniger/Jean Segura trade, the Dee Gordon trade, the Denard Span/Alex Colome trade...none of these were reported or even foreshadowed until they happened. Meanwhile, names that have been connected to Seattle in the DiPoto era—Lucas Duda, Jay Bruce, Jon Jay, Matt Harvey, Sonny Gray, Carlos Santana, among others—haven’t panned out. Remember for like two hours over the Winter Meetings this past year we thought they were signing Mark Trumbo because someone saw someone talking to his agent or something? MAN those Winter Meetings were boring. As DiPoto told reporters at the Winter Meetings, “we are linked to everything because we are constantly involved in everything.” All DiPoto has said to this matter is: “it’s a good group of five pitchers; if we have the chance to go out and augment it, we will”—which is DiPoto-speak for “I’m not doing anything differently than I normally do.” My gut instinct is that the Mariners are doing their due diligence on Hamels, and writers and rumor-mongers are putting the pieces together (because again: it would make so much sense!). To me, it would be surprising to see DiPoto, who has prized bringing in assets who will be long-term pieces of the club rather than splash money on rentals, go this route. If they do, however, there’s certainly no concern about Cole Hamels not fitting in with the Mariners’ “no bad guys” clubhouse; remember when he donated his ten-million dollar house to charity?

In conclusion, the Mariners need to make the playoffs in 2018 & Cole Hamels would be the best option as he has post-season experience with the Philadelphia Phillies team that won the 2008 World Series over the Tampa Bay Rays. Hamels made five postseason starts in 2008, going 4–0 with a 1.80 ERA, throwing 35 innings and holding the opposition scoreless in 28 of them and he never allowed more than one run in any of the seven innings in which he did not hold opponents scoreless during the 2008 post-season. As a bonus reward for his efforts, he was named the NLCS Most Valuable Player and the World Series Most Valuable Player.

Compare & Contrast

For many reasons, the San Diego Padres organization currently, as a whole, reminds me of the Oakland Athletics organization from the late 1990's-early 2000's. Why would that be? It's quite simple really...

Backstory:

When the Oakland Athletics [or more commonly called the A's], traded superstar players like Rickey Henderson & Mark McGwire, they had a bright, young General Manager named Billy Beane, who at the time was vilified [and still is today by many in Oakland] for not keeping his superstars. But there was a reason why: the Oakland A's had no money whatsoever to keep those players, as they had recently "updated" the Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum to accommodate the NFL's Oakland Raiders, who had just moved back from Los Angeles. The Raiders' owner, Al Davis, built a triple-decker structure which the local fans have grudgingly nicknamed "The U.S.S. Al Davis". It took the beauty out of that park & made it a football stadium. Anyways, I'm getting way off track. Billy Beane did this out of the fear of bankruptcy, the Padres' General Manager, A.J. Preller, did it because he felt like it.

Intelligent Draft Choices

From 1997 to 1999 the A's made three very good choices in the Major League Baseball Amateur draft. What would those choices be? In 1997 GM Billy Beane chose right handed pitcher Tim Hudson with Oakland's 1st round pick that season. The following year, in 1998, left handed pitcher Mark Mulder was selected in the 1st round & finally, in 1999, Oakland chose left handed pitcher Barry Zito in the 1st round. Oh and here is a fun fact: Zito was a 1996 33rd round draft pick by the Seattle Mariners, but Zito did not sign. Anyhow, these three guys were college pitchers, who are [hopefully] more mature in their behavior & more physically & more mentally developed than pitchers who were drafted straight out of high school. These guys would eventually become "the Big Three" as they were three of the best pitchers in baseball... and they were all on the same damn team! The Padres have a similar trio of future star pitchers in the Minor Leagues: Cal Quantrill, Joey Lucchesi & Anderson Espinoza, the latter of whom is currently on the disabled list.

But wait! There's More!


The Athletics also had the best farm system in Major League Baseball in the late '90s-early 2000's, much as the Padres do in the present. In fact the A's farm system was so impressive that they were awarded "Organization of the Year" three years straight from 1998-2000, beating out more popular teams such as the New York Yankees & the Boston Red Sox.  Like the A's before them, the Padres have so many talented ballplayers in their organization, it's not even funny! The Padres General Manager, A.J. Preller, has signed players from the Dominican Republic, Japan, etc.. As a matter of fact, in just about any place in the world where baseball is being played, the San Diego Padres are looking for talent & as Branch Rickey [the man who signed Jackie Robinson] once said, "If you have the talent, you will be found!".

The Trades

In my opinion, the most important trade for the Padres came in May of 2016 when they swindled the Chicago White Sox out of future superstar shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. in exchange for one of the worst pitchers in baseball in 2018, James Shields. If the White Sox weren't the very definition of "gullible" that day in May, 2016, then what is the definition of "gullible"? The only time I could think of when Oakland did this was when Billy Beane acquired/swindled young talent during a July 1999 trade with the New York Mets on July 31st, 1999. The A's acquired pitchers Jason Isringhausen & Ireland raised Greg McMichael, along with speedy centerfielder Terrence Long, in exchange for pitchers Billy Taylor & Kenny Rogers. 

Team Chemistry

Whenever I see the Padres, the thing that reminds me the most of those Oakland Athletics teams from the late '90s-to early '00s, is the comradery the players have with each other. There are twenty five guys on an active Major League Baseball roster, some may arrive to the ballpark in a bad mood, but they leave it at the door. They all enter with one team goal & that's to win a ballgame. It doesn't matter who the hero is, as long as they win that day. That's what I see in the Padres, they may not have the most money, but they do have enthusiasm & a great respect for the game of baseball.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the San Diego Padres, like the A's before them, have a good minor league system, have made intelligent draft choices & have a good comradery with each other. The Future is looking bright for the Padres. Now let's just hope they don't get eliminated in the 1st round of the playoffs, like those Oakland teams did.

Close the Hall of Fame & Start Over!

Before I go into this I have to issue a huge disclaimer: The entry you are about to read has swearing in it so please read it with this disclaimer in mind. So here we go!
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Here’s a complete list of the voters who voted against San Diego Padres pitcher Trevor Hoffman as well as Seattle Mariners Designated Hitter Edgar Martinez and their location last year. Note that the location might be slightly off for some, but this was based on what I could find publicly through Wikipedia, Twitter, and through recently published work:

BBWAA Member	Location
Jeff Fletcher	Anaheim
Mark Bradley	Atlanta
Peter Abraham	Boston
Bill Ballou	Boston
David Borges	Boston
Paul Doyle	Boston
Alan Greenwood	Boston
Scott Lauber	Boston
Art Martone	Boston
Tony Massarotti	Boston
Joe McDonald	Boston
Brendan Roberts	Boston
Bob Ryan	Boston
Dan Shaughnessy	Boston
Michael Silverman	Boston
John Tomase	Boston
Mike Harrington	Buffalo
Ryan Fagan	Charlotte
Bernie Lincicome	Chicago
Carrie Muskat	Chicago
Mike Nadel	Chicago
Phil Rogers	Chicago
Gordon Wittenmyer	Chicago
Paul Daugherty	Cincinnati
Scott Priestle	Cincinnati
C. Trent Rosecrans	Cincinnati
Bill Livingston	Cleveland
Tim Cowlishaw	Dallas
Lynn Henning	Detroit
Tom Keegan	Kansas City
Sam Mellinger	Kansas City
Jeff Passan	Kansas City
Rick Plumlee	Kansas City
Joe Posnanski	Kansas City
Juan Vené	Miami
Steve Wine	Miami
Peter Botte	New York
Larry Brooks	New York
Pete Caldera	New York
Murray Chass	New York
Ken Davidoff	New York
Mark Feinsand	New York
Mark Hale	New York
Anthony McCarron	New York
Eric Nunez	New York
Steve Popper	New York
Mike Puma	New York
Mike Shalin	New York
Joel Sherman	New York
Mike Vaccaro	New York
George Willis	New York
Pat Caputo	Oakland
Josh Dubow	Oakland
Alan Robinson	Pittsburgh
Bob Smizik	Pittsburgh
Andrew Baggarly	San Francisco
Mark Purdy	San Francisco
Jim Caple	Seattle
Willie Smith	South Carolina
Mark Saxon	St. Louis
Mike Berardino	St. Paul
Phil Miller	St. Paul
John Romano	Tampa
Jeff Blair	Toronto
Rob Gillies	Toronto
Dave Perkins	Toronto
Peter Barzilai	Washington D.C.

Notice any trends? Amazingly, there were 14 ballots from the Boston area – more on this later – alone that omitted Trevor Hoffman & Edgar Martinez. Another 15 New York ballots omitted Hoffman & Edgar. Only 6 West Coast ballots omitted the two.
This is not insignificant. In fact, using an Exact Test  – a statistical method to determine the “rarity” of a contingency table in a random sampling – we see that the revealed Boston vote is very statistically significant, with a two-tailed P value of .0041. If you aren’t familiar with what the P value means:

If there really is no association between the variable defining the rows and the variable defining the columns in the overall population, what is the chance that random sampling would result in an association as strong (or stronger) as observed in this experiment?

In other words, the Boston/Not Boston contingency table is very unlikely if the null hypothesis, that Boston voters are not different from non-Boston voters, is true:

And while New York had 15 no votes, they also had 30 yes votes: a statistically insignificant P value of 0.3682. California, meanwhile, was somewhat biased in Hoffman’s favor, but not enough (P = 0.0966) to definitively conclude anything:

Outside of statistically biased Boston, Hoffman got the required 75.6% of votes needed for induction. In fact, if just 65% of the known Boston ballots voted in Hoffman’s favor, he would have been inducted.
But that’s not even what makes the vote an East Coast sham.
What I really want to talk about is how the F**K Boston, with one baseball team, has roughly 10% of the entire electorate? As you can see, a whopping 26 (10.7%) of all revealed ballots originated from Boston Red Sox territory. There were dudes with votes from obscure newspapers scattered all across New England. Writers from newspapers in Framingham (20 miles away from Boston), Worcester (about 50 miles), and Hartford (keep going)… and then some nimrod that covers UConn basketball in New Haven, ESPN.com’s Boston Bruins hockey analyst, two 1st time voters in the Boston area, and SIX people each from the Boston Globe and Boston Herald.
That’s 26 from just the known votes for one baseball team spanning a population center of roughly 14 million people. And yet Southern California, home to three baseball teams and a population of over 22 million, has just 9 of the 242 known ballots. Proportionally, the Southern California teams receive just 1/9th the representation as the Boston Red Sox.
If writers in Framingham or Hartford and hockey writers get a vote, where’s San Bernardino’s Dodgers representative? Does Bakersfield have a voter?
What ticks me off the most, though, isn’t that Hoffman & Edgar didn’t get inducted last year, since there’s a really high probability that happens in 2018. It’s that we all know that as soon David Ortiz hits the ballot, Bob Ryan and the rest of the Boston mafia will instantly forget the Wins Above Replacement arguments they’ve made against Hoffman & Edgar. Instead, they’ll say their overweight, steroid using Designated Hitter deserves to enter the Hall despite trailing many fellow stars they left off their ballots in WAR: Gary Sheffield (by 12 wins), Edgar Martinez (by 15!), Larry Walker (by 18), and Barry Bonds (by 2.3 David Ortiz careers).
What else would you expect from the B(oston)BWAA?

An Interesting Thought...

The year 1993 was a pivotal one in the history of the Seattle Mariners.  The previous year was a disaster, as general manager Woody Woodward traded young pitchers Bill Swift, Mike Jackson and Dave Burba for Giants slugger Kevin Mitchell.  Mitchell was an unenthusiastic performer and with the young relievers stripped from the bullpen, the Mariners were a laughingstock [No changes there then!].  Their 64-98 season cost Bill Plummer his job.
Plummer’s departure, however, made way for the arrival of Lou Piniella.  Piniella made it clear things would be different.  The team that took the field in the Kingdome in ’93 had many of the heroes of ’95. Ken Griffey, Jay Buhner, Tino Martinez and Rich Amaral.  Edgar Martinez had torn his hamstrings in the last pre-season game in Vancouver, after winning his first batting title in 1992, but he would be back as a DH in ’94. The other hero of ’95 who returned was Randy Johnson.

Johnson was in his sixth year in the majors, his fifth year with the M’s.  Let’s just say he was unique.  The tallest man in Major League Baseball, he threw hard, had a slider and loved heavy metal music [although he enjoyed listening to the opera on his way to the stadium].  But he was wild, leading the American League in walks from 1990-92 with 120, 152 and 144 respectively.  If he could just put it all together, Johnson could be a monster. But in 1992 Johnson was outpitched by soft-tossing lefty Dave Fleming, who went 17-10 and finished third in Rookie of the Year balloting.
It would never happen again.

In 1993 at age 29, after working with Nolan Ryan in the off-season Randy Johnson appeared a different pitcher. He won 19 games, struck out 308 batters and finished second in  Cy Young voting. It was the beginning of Randy Johnson as a Hall of Fame pitcher.  From 1993-2004 Johnson would finish first or second in Cy Young voting eight times and make all-star appearances nine times.

In a September 2016 story with Tim Rodmaker of Professional Baseball Strength and Conditioning, Johnson credited his off-season sessions with Ryan for helping him find a new delivery that helped him control his extra long limbs.  Ryan taught him to be more aggressive, control the game more effectively, and make clear to batters that he was in charge. Ryan also taught Johnson more about the importance of being a good teammate.

2018 is James Paxton’s sixth season, also his age 29 year. His big year might have been 2016 when with a change in his arm slot and a big tick up in his fastball velocity and better command of his pitches, Paxton became a much better pitcher. But, like Johnson in ’93, this year is the most important of Paxton’s tenure with the Mariners.  My belief is that progress by the big lefty is critical and makes him, in many respects, the most important player on the team. 29, after working with Nolan Ryan in the off-season Randy Johnson appeared a different pitcher. He won 19 games, struck out 308 batters and finished second in  Cy Young voting. It was the beginning of Randy Johnson as a Hall of Fame pitcher.  From 1993-2004 Johnson would finish first or second in Cy Young voting eight times and make all-star appearances nine times.

Obviously, pitching has changed so much since 1993.  The critical role of the starting pitcher has diminished somewhat as dominant bullpens have assumed a larger role.  So comparing Johnson to Paxton maybe doesn’t make sense.  Johnson had 14 years of over 200 inning pitched. Between 1993-2002, Johnson missed 200 twice, once because of the strike in 1994, and in the season of his back surgery in 1996.  Paxton hasn’t thrown 150 innings in any of his years.  Johnson was 6’10” of angry, volatile rocket fuel who not only won 303 games, but is tied for fifth all-time for most career hit batters. Roger Clemens at 14 and Don Drysdale at 19 are soft by comparison. James Paxton isn’t that guy. He may be tall, but angry he isn’t.

But like Johnson in ’93, the Mariners are putting a lot of hope on the tall Canadian’s shoulders. He’s received a lot of accolades from his GM as being among the top ten pitchers in the American League. Some of the stats support this. Of course you’re going to have to dig around for them, because he doesn’t qualify for many of the basic numbers and doesn’t appear on the ESPN or Baseball Reference leader boards.  Not enough innings pitched. Yes he is 10^th in the AL in pitcher WAR, but still a long way from the league leaders.  Jeff Sullivan wrote a great article in August about Paxton leading the American League in wOBA or batted ball speed.  And that was just before the big man went on the DL for the second time in August after a pectoral strain.  He’d miss three starts and never pitch well in a game for the rest of 2017. Yes, Paxton has great rate stats, but they don’t measure loss to the team when Christian Bergman or Max Povse are taking his starts, or the number of starts when Paxton is regaining his mechanical consistency after  time away on the DL.
I can talk until I’m blue in the face about the Mariners rotation, whether it’s passable, or decent, or downright terrible. But if there is a chance for the Mariners to make the playoffs in 2018, it begins with James Paxton. For the years 1993-1998, those remaining  of Johnson’s career with the Mariners, The Big Unit was surrounded by a plethora of lesser lights-a declining Chris Bosio, Jeff Fassero, Tim Belcher, reinforced by Jamie Moyer in 2017, and a highly volatile bullpen. Johnson was the guy who led the rest of the pitchers, alongside an admittedly brilliant offensive cast, to the playoffs in ’95 and again in ’97 in spite of the mediocrity of the rest of the pitching.
We can also argue about the 2018 offense, whether it is average, a little better than average or really good, but unless the pitching staff can perform it won’t matter how many runs this team scores, they will lose. A quality pitching staff begins with a legitimate ace, and Paxton has to be that guy.  Pitchers become aces by being on the field. Click those ESPN WAR stats again.  Check the top five.  None has less than 193.1 innings. By comparison, Paxton ranks 47th in innings pitched.

Look, I’m not suggesting Paxton is a malingerer, a slacker, or anything of the kind.  Perhaps the hiring of Dr. Lorena Martin as director of high performance will make the difference, or maybe Paxton will figure it out.  But the bottom line is no Paxton hurts the team.  He needs to be on the field. The Mariners have no shot without him.

This is not only a huge year for Paxton as a Mariner. He’s just avoided his second year of arbitration for a tidy $4.9 million.  2019 will be his final year under Mariner control before he hits free agency. Will he enter the market as a 31-year old established star, or will he limp onto the big stage long on potential but ever-injured like Brett Anderson?  Will he be Clayton Kershaw as he walks unscathed on to the big free agent stage in 2019, or will he merely be another can on the scratched and dented aisle in 2020?
James Paxton isn’t likely to be a Hall of Fame pitcher.  But it isn’t difficult to see he is the leader of this pitching staff.  In 2018 he must take the next step forward by being on the field, just as Randy Johnson made the same leap at the same age.  To me that means at least 30 healthy starts and a minimum of 180 innings pitched.  Just to compare, that puts him number 15 in the American League using 2017 stats, just behind Jason Hammel and just ahead of Jason Vargas, not anywhere near the AL’s top ten.
The M’s will fare as well in 2018 as James Paxton does.  The day his name appears on the DL is the day their hopes for a successful season are likely over.  Mark it down.

Why the Seattle Mariners will sign Japanese Sensation Shohei Ohtani

A few days ago, Ken Rosenthal and MLB Network revealed the list of questions that Japanese Pitcher/Hitter Shohei Ohtani has for any organization in Major League Baseball that has any interest in signing him. Here are the questions, and here are my answers from a fans perspective. This is going to be a long one, but might be worth the read if you are interested in following the Ohtani Sweepstakes like I am.
“Evaluate Ohtani’s talent as a pitcher and as a hitter.”
Jerry Dipoto on his new podcast “The Wheelhouse” with Aaron Goldsmith stated that they wouldn’t by shy with throwing Cruz into the outfield 2 or 3 days a week in order to get Ohtani some at bats; so there’s no need for any further acknowledgment on whether or not the Seattle Mariners would allow and encourage Ohtani to both pitch and hit. As for evaluating his talent as both, Dipoto and other representatives for the Seattle Mariners have been scouting him for around a years worth of time according to Jerry Dipoto via The Wheelhouse Sports Blog, and have had serious interest and scouting that has lead to this moment of Ohtani declaring he will be coming to MLB in 2018. Serious evaluation has been made and it is clear Dipoto and the Mariners are serious about going after Shohei Ohtani and have stated they are pushing as hard as they can to convince him that Seattle is the place for him to play in.
“Explain your player development.”
Three words come to mind when asked how to explain our player development: Control The Zone.
This stems through not only the major league club, but throughout all minor leagues levels and ball clubs and international clubs as well. “Control The Zone” is simply a motto taken into action in regards to coaches and players doing their best to “control the zone”, both from a hitters AND pitchers standpoint. Given Ohtani is talented as both a pitcher and hitter himself, he not only fits into the Control The Zone philosophy that we the Mariners have, but fully embodies the philosophy as a player as whole on the field, and especially from the mental aspect. But you may be thinking this sounds great and all, but ask “does it work?” The answer is a resounding yes. When Jerry Dipoto, the General Manager and President of Baseball Operations for the Seattle Mariners took over on September 28th, 2015, he knew immediately what he wanted to do and how to do it in regards of making the Mariners a better playing baseball team from top to bottom in multiple facets. Within one full season, the major league team and ALL minor league teams displayed improvement, and the proof is in the fact every minor league team except for one made the post season in their league and two of them won the championship. More proof is individual players stats improving and so far sustaining their success since Dipoto & Co. took over a little over 2 years ago. The greatest part about this is the fact Ohtani embodies all of this, all at the young age of 23 with years to improve; and improve he would under the Control The Zone approach the Seattle Mariners organization incorporates throughout its system.
“Medical training and player-performance philosophies.”
In regards to player-performance philosophies, the answer to the previous question goes in depth about that philosophy, “Control The Zone”. In regards to medical training, look no further than the Mariners hiring the first ever Director of High Performance and its leader Lorena Martin. Dr. Martin has Masters Degree in Sports Psychology and has previously worked as the Director of Sports Performance Analytics for the Los Angeles Lakers of the National Basketball Association. She was also a Sports Science Evaluator and Consultant for Ripken Baseball, a Sports Psychology Coach for Athletic Mental Performance, Inc., and the Lead Statistician for the Kaweah Delta Hospital District. Her educational background began with a Bachelor's Degree in Psychology, and minors in Spanish and Leadership from the University of Miami. She then went on to get her Master of Science from Nova Southeastern University, returned to U of Miami for her PhD in Exercise Physiology, and completed her postdoctoral research fellowship in Preventive Medicine at the University of California San Diego, where she earned three post-doctorates in GIS spatial analysis, biostatistics, and epidemiology. She is committed to bringing all of the Mariners physical/nutritional health and more into one department and make modern day advancements on how to improve and sustain player health. The Mariners could definitely use this as multiple players went on the disabled list multiple times; though not at fault of the coaching or training staff, but a combination of bad luck and some lack of personal dependability to keep yourself healthy and ready for game day. Dr. Martin and her staff will ensure players are both mentally and physically prepared for the season and each individual game, and believe this would greatly benefit Ohtani as he will be a multi-talent player if he were to join the Seattle Mariners.
“Description of minor league and spring training facilities.”
Aside from referring to the Control The Zone philosophy/approach the Mariners have incorporated into their minor league system and throughout spring training and the rest of the season, we would also mention the fact that these teams are located around the country, as well as a Dominican Republic affiliate. Our spring training facility is located in Peoria, Arizona and is shared with the San Diego Padres. As soon as you arrive you will get the feel for the sport of baseball as well as the feel of a perfect hot midsummer day to play baseball. We work hard over the 6 weeks the team is down there preparing for the quickly approaching season, and make sure all of our players feel welcome and appreciated for their efforts and poise while at the same time taking things seriously as the Mariners hope for another chance at a post season and World Series appearance.
“Resources for Ohtani’s cultural assimilation into their city.”
Firstly, we’d like to list the plethora of Japanese players that have come to Seattle over the last 2 decades in the likes of: Ichiro Suzuki, Kazuhiro Sasaki, Norichka Aoki, Munenori Kawasaki, Shigetoshi Hasegawa, and others. Most, if not all have received not only a warm welcome by the Seattle Mariners organization and its fanbase, but have enjoyed their time and stay in a Seattle Mariners uniform and living in and around the city of Seattle, which has a rich Japanese culture throughout it, especially within the Mariners Organization, including having been owned by Nintendo.
“Vision for how Ohtani could integrate into the organization.”
Many clubs, including the Seattle Mariners believe Ohtani is an immediate impact player in the fact he would slide into the rotation immediately and in some cases the DH slot, or possibly in the field of Ohtani is open to it. Jerry Dipoto has been open to the idea of slotting current DH Nelson Cruz into the outfield two or three days a week in order to give Ohtani at bats on his days off from pitching. He does not need to be assigned to AAA Tacoma, as stated before, he will fit into the 25-Man roster immediately and be given more than one role in the field. He will bolster a currently weak back end of the rotation and be paired with another top arm, then bolstering the entire rotation. He can give the lineup much flexibility as when he is DHing, Nelson Cruz could get a day in right field or even the day off and have Ben Gamel or Guillermo Heredia play in right for a day a week. We believe Ohtani would directly effect the Seattle Mariners roster and daily approaches and strategies in how we manage a baseball game.
“Tell Ohtani why their team is a desirable place to play.”
Not only is Seattle a beautiful city with the best ballpark in the world to play in, but bigger named stars have been more prone to sign with the Mariners than in some years ago when the may have been reluctant to. The likes of Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz, Jean Segura, Kyle Seager, and others have signed with or extended their contracts in order to play baseball in Seattle long term. One such star was Ichiro Suzuki, who signed in 2001 and signed two contract extensions during his time in Seattle before getting traded in 2012. He played and enjoyed his time in Seattle for over 11 years, along side other Japanese players like Kazuhiro Sasaki, Shigetoshi Hasegawa, and Munenori Kawasaki. So not only would current and former Mariner players speak kindly and in favor of playing in Seattle, but so would the Japanese players that have played here over the years. And not only that, but it’s just across the ocean from Japan and has a strong Japanese culture that Ohtani would fit right into.
So after listing all of these things off the top of my head (took me about a day to do so), it looks like we should have a fairly strong advantage in signing Shohei Ohtani. Most, if not all of these questions are right up the Mariners and city of Seattle alley and essentially scream to Ohtani that these are all key fits for him in Seattle. The more I think about it, the more I begin to think...
The Seattle Mariners are going to land Shohei Ohtani.

Ryon Healy: The Newest Seattle Mariner

I meant to post earlier this week but I had a job interview the day the trade was finalized.

Well... the Mariners General Manager Jerry DiPoto didn't wait long...he's doing his job. I really love this move of acquiring first baseman Ryon Healy. He is a younger version of Logan Morrison, who incidentally is a free agent and looking for @ $10-20 mil long term deal. Some experts thought that the Mariners might try to bring him back, as he was with the Mariners in 2014 & 2015. But with this young man from Oakland, they get a 25 year old with a $500,000 contract who had a good season last year (25 Home Runs, .270 batting average), his first full year in the majors. It looks like he is Danny Valencia (who Healy replaced in Oakland, ironically) at the very least, and Healy is a possible budding star for years to come. He also played 3rd base and 1st base, so it gives the Mariners some flexibility and a possible rest day for regular third baseman Kyle Seager against a tough Left handed pitcher. But the best part? For once in my lifetime the Mariners aren't paying millions for someone on the downswing portion of their career. The team upgrades without spending free agent dollars, and frees up payroll to spend in other areas (pitching and outfield help).

Having said that, I really liked Emilio Pagan as well, and I'm sure Seattle hated to give him up in the deal. He really did well last year and was arguably the Mariners best reliever the last two months of the season with a lot of upside left in the tank. But you are NOT going to get a player with the talent that Healy possesses for nothing, The only reason he was even available, was that the Oakland Athletics has a log-jam at 1B-3B-DH with their new top prospects needing to play there who they consider ready to go and future stars themselves.
There of course is risk in any move, and we all know Seattle's god awful track record (Please don't make me mention Jason Varitek again...), but I LOVE THIS MOVE and sure didn't see it coming.... NO ONE expected this. By the way, Oakland fans are quite angry, trading away arguably their best full-time player for a part-time pitcher.
THE 3 BASIC POSITIVES:
1) The Seattle Mariners got way younger at a position of need with a legitimately good young player, with MLB experience (unlike Daniel Vogelbach, who has been disappointing to put it mildly)
2) They didn't constrict themselves with another long term over-pay contract (examples: Robby Cano & Felix Hernandez)
3) The Mariners traded away from their one area of depth, if not strength, which albeit has some inconsistency. But, they still have Edwin Diaz, Nick Vincent, Dan Altavilla, Tony Zych, David Phelps and Shae Simmons (the last 3 here all battled injury last year, but when healthy have been fairly effective). They also have young talent in that area that is trending upward. A prime example would be Art Warren, who is pitching well in the Arizona Fall League at the time of this blog entry.
THE LONE NEGATIVE [for my stepdad]:

He went to College at the University of Oregon. That's it.

The San Diego Padres: A Dynasty in the Making

Padres GM A.J. Preller

If you haven't noticed, San Diego Padres General Manager A.J. Preller is building a dynasty from the ground up in San Diego. I have the utmost respect for this man, as he is a genius. He has been a busy man ever since he took over the Padres GM job in late 2014. For starters, in 2015, he got rid of the majority of his predecessor's [the rather ignorant Josh Byrnes] top minor league players [i.e. Trea Turner & Mallex Smith], which is usually a big no-no. Preller, most notably, acquired Matt Kemp [whose career has been in steep decline since he was traded from San Diego to Atlanta in 2016], Justin Upton [who eventually signed with the Detroit Tigers after the 2015 season concluded] & Wil Myers, who is still with the Padres & is one of the team's star players. But the most incredible part of this is, A.J. Preller kept the most talented young players he had inherited from Josh Byrnes's rather forgettable time in America's Finest City. Those players are catcher Austin Hedges, right fielder Hunter Renfroe & infielder/outfielder Cory Spangenberg. Also, in two separate trades just 7 months apart, A.J. Preller swindled the Boston Red Sox out of center fielder Manny Margot [who projects to be worth 1.7 more victories than what the Atlanta Braves got out of Kemp in 2017], infielder Carlos Asuaje [who looks like a very excellent utility player], shortstop Javier Guerra [who is an outstanding defensive player], starting pitcher Anderson Espinoza [who, according to a vast majority of baseball scouts, is the second coming of Hall-of-Fame pitcher Pedro Martinez] in exchange for closing pitcher Craig Kimbrel & starting pitcher Drew Pomeranz. Not only that, but Preller also tricked the Chicago White Sox into giving up Fernando Tatis Jr., the son of former MLB player Fernando Tatis, in exchange for declining, overpriced starting pitcher James Shields.

But, in my opinion, the Padres do not have enough pitching. Wait, scratch that, they do but those pitchers aren't ready to pitch in the Major Leagues...yet. But there is one pitcher who is possibly ready...Anderson Espinoza.

So, expect the San Diego Padres to reach, at best, 75-81 wins in 2018, but DON'T expect them to reach the playoffs, as they do not have enough reliable pitching... yet. But instead look ahead to 2019, where the Padres will be a legitimate playoff contender for the 1st time in years and, after 2019, they will be contenders for years afterwards. It will be worth the wait for San Diego fans, as their baseball franchise hasn't made the playoffs since the 2006 season.

Of course that's just my opinion, I could be wrong.